Renewable energy surpasses coal for the first time: six charts reveal the shift in global energy production structure

Renewable Energy Surpasses Coal for the First Time: Six Charts Reveal the Shift in Global Energy Production Structure

The world is consuming more electricity than ever before, but the sources of that electricity are undergoing profound changes. Based on annual electricity data from the independent think tank Ember, the Pew Research Center published an analysis showing that fossil fuels' dominance in the global electricity generation mix is loosening, while renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are growing rapidly. In 2025, renewables accounted for a larger share of global electricity generation than coal for the first time, marking an important signal in the global power transition. This shift is not only the "greening" of the power sector, but also entails a deep restructuring of energy security, grid operations, and clean technology supply chains.

Industry Background

Over the past quarter-century, the global electricity production structure has shown a clear pattern of one source rising as another falls. According to Ember data, in 2000 about 65% of global electricity came from coal, gas, and other fossil fuels; by 2025, that share had fallen to 57%. Among these, the change in coal's share has been the most dramatic: global coal-fired power's share peaked at about 41% in 2013 and has continued to decline since, reaching 33% in 2025. Natural gas has remained roughly stable at between 18% and 22%.

The most striking development is the overall rise of renewable energy. In 2025, wind, solar, biomass, hydro, geothermal, tidal, and wave energy together contributed about 34% of global electricity, while coal accounted for only 33%—renewables' share surpassed coal's for the first time by a narrow margin. It should be noted that, because global electricity demand has continued to climb, hydropower's share has fallen from 17.2% in 2000 to about 14%, yet its actual generation is far higher than it was more than two decades ago. Nuclear power, meanwhile, has experienced a marked contraction, declining from about 17% of the share in 2000 to roughly 9% in 2025.

Current Development Dynamics

Within the renewable energy family, solar power is the fastest-growing source of electricity generation. In 2025, about 9% of global electricity came from photovoltaics, compared with just 3% in 2020 and almost negligible at the beginning of this century. The cost curve is the footnote to all this: the average price of solar modules has fallen from $128 per watt in 1975 (in 2024 dollars) to $0.26 per watt in 2024, a decline of more than 99%. Every time module prices dropped by an order of magnitude, global photovoltaic generation made a step-change leap upward.

Wind power has likewise maintained steady growth. In 2025, wind accounted for about 8.6% of global electricity generation, a significant rise from roughly 3.5% in 2015. Together, wind and solar contribute about 17% of global electricity, compared with less than 5% in 2015. The two have become the main driving forces behind renewable energy surpassing coal.Regionally, the penetration of renewable energy has been uneven. The EU stands out as the most prominent region: in 2025, renewable energy accounted for 48% of EU electricity generation, fossil fuels fell to 29%, and nuclear power was 23%, making renewable energy the EU's largest source of electricity. According to the charts in the original report, in many countries including the United States, China, India, Brazil, Japan, and Australia, the share of fossil fuel power generation declined while the share of renewable energy rose, though the magnitude and trajectories differ. The report specifically notes that the data series for Saudi Arabia and Indonesia end in 2024, indicating that the renewable energy transition in these countries is just beginning or lacks consistent statistics.

Impact on the energy system

The share of renewable power generation surpassing coal has multiple systemic implications.

From the perspective of carbon emission reduction, every additional unit of renewable power generation represents a substitution for fossil fuel power generation. The global power sector is one of the largest sources of carbon emissions, and the continued expansion of renewable energy's share provides a quantifiable pathway toward carbon neutrality goals.

From the perspective of grid operation, wind and solar power are intermittent and not fully predictable. As they shift from "supplementary power sources" to "main power sources," the system's demand for flexibility rises sharply. Traditional thermal power is moving from baseload operation to deep peak shaving, and the grid needs supporting cross-regional transmission corridors, electrochemical energy storage, pumped hydro storage, and demand-side management mechanisms to maintain frequency and voltage stability. The decline in nuclear power's share has, to some extent, reduced carbon-free baseload capacity, further increasing the system's demand for flexible resources.

From the perspective of electricity markets, the marginal generation costs of solar and wind power approach zero, which will push down wholesale electricity prices in spot markets. However, to recover fixed costs, traditional power plants need new capacity mechanisms or ancillary service markets to ensure a return on investment. This will prompt deeper reforms in global electricity market rules.

From the perspective of energy geopolitics, the energy independence of fossil fuel importing countries will increase as they develop local wind and solar resources. At the same time, however, the concentration of clean energy supply chains—such as photovoltaic modules, batteries, and rare earths—has created new strategic dependencies. Competition among countries over clean technology manufacturing and critical minerals is intensifying.

Challenges ahead

Despite renewable energy's strong growth momentum, the industry still needs to overcome several key obstacles before it can ultimately replace fossil fuels.

The first is insufficient energy storage and flexible resources. At this stage, global energy storage capacity remains disproportionate to renewable energy capacity. Measured against the minute-level and hour-level regulation needs of power systems, resources such as batteries and pumped hydro are far from sufficient. Without adequate storage support, the large-scale adoption of wind and solar power will hit a ceiling in terms of grid absorption capacity.

The second is lagging transmission grid infrastructure. Many large wind and solar bases are located far from load centers, and the construction period and approval process for transmission lines often take anywhere from several years to over a decade. In some countries, grid connection queues have become the biggest factor delaying wind and solar projects.The third is financing and cost pressure. Although clean energy investment is generally on an upward track, high interest rates, equipment price fluctuations, exchange rate risks, and project permitting uncertainties can all affect project returns. In developing countries especially, financing costs are higher, which constrains the expansion of renewable energy.

The fourth is policy instability. Some countries waver between climate goals and energy security, with some even experiencing policy rollbacks. If systems such as carbon markets, green electricity certificates, and government procurement lack long-term consistency, they will weaken investor confidence.

The fifth is supply chain and raw material constraints. Wind and solar PV manufacturing depends on specific raw materials such as polysilicon, rare earths, and certain metals, whose extraction and processing are highly concentrated. Geopolitical conflicts or trade restrictions could disrupt global clean energy supply chains.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead five to twenty years, the trend toward a greener global power mix is highly likely to continue. Solar module prices may keep falling, and PV installation costs in most parts of the world are already lower than those of newly built coal power. Wind power, especially offshore wind, is also expanding development space through larger turbines and floating platforms. Energy storage system costs are now on a downward path, which will provide the necessary balancing support for power grids with high shares of renewable energy.

Beyond technological progress, policy remains the most critical variable. The European Union has shown that through emissions trading, renewable energy targets, and grid investment, the share of renewables can approach 50 percent in just over a decade. Other major economies can likewise accelerate their energy transition if they adhere to long-term, credible climate policies. Global energy competition will gradually shift from "who owns more oil and gas resources" to "who can master more efficient renewable energy technologies and industrial chains."

Of course, the transformation of the energy system is not a linear process. Rising electricity demand, extreme weather, and geopolitical conflicts can all disrupt the pace of transition. A higher share of renewables will not automatically deliver carbon neutrality; it also requires systematically upgrading infrastructure, markets, and regulations. One possible scenario is that around 2050, the global power mix will no longer be dominated by fossil fuels, and solar and wind will become the new "coal," while energy storage and hydrogen will serve as the bridge connecting power generation with power consumption. For energy companies, grid operators, investors, and policymakers, understanding this trend and planning in advance for flexibility and supply chain resilience is already an urgent priority.